Serena Williams (1.95) v Justine Henin (2)

Serena Williams just edges her head-to-head record with Justine Henin by seven wins to six, although she holds a more commanding four-one lead on hard courts. Remarkably for the two finest players of the past decade this will be their first meeting in a Grand Slam final, despite one of the two having appeared in 24 of the past 34 Slam finals.

Williams has a formidable record in Grand Slam finals having won 11 of the 14 she’s contested including seven of eight on hard courts and all four at the Australian Open. Of these 14 finals, 10 have finished in straight sets. She has also won six of her nine Premier Level finals since 2003.

The World Number One looked sluggish at times against the determined efforts of Na Li in the semis and is possibly feeling the effect of a few niggles and the extra matches she’s played in already securing the doubles title here with her sister. However, she has now won 14 of 15 matches back to the season-ending championships in Doha, and has also won nine of her 11 matches against current top 10 players since last year’s French Open.

Henin has made an impressive return to the tour as she’s followed up a runners-up performance in Brisbane with her run to the final here. She also possesses a good record in Grand Slam finals having won seven of 11 contested, although that is just three of seven away from the clay of Roland Garros.

Despite Henin’s superb comeback, Williams has the edge on hard courts and we believe she should be a clear favourite.

Recommendation: Williams to win at 1.95, Expekt

Roger Federer (1.62) v Andy Murray (2.55)

Roger Federer trails by four wins to seven in his head-to-heads with Andy Murray, all of which have been on hard courts. However, the Swiss Maestro has won their last two matches and beat the Scot 6/2, 7/5, 6/2 in the final of the 2008 US Open. Interestingly, Federer has won the first set in seven of their last nine meetings and has served first in the match in eight of those nine, including all seven that he’s won.

Federer’s form has improved throughout the tournament as he eyes a 16th Grand Slam title and the World Number One has won 14 of his previous 17 Slam finals not on clay. He has also won 21 of 33 matches against current top 10 players since the start of last season. More significantly 20 of the 33 opening sets in these matches have had fewer than 10 games and he has won 21 of them, doing so 6/3 seven times.

More recently, 12 of Federer’s 16 first sets back to last year Masters Cup have had fewer than 10 games, as have half his 12 opening sets against top 10 seeds at the Australian Open since 2005.

Murray has a good record against fellow current top 10 players since the start of 2009 with 15 wins in 22 matches, of which 14 have had fewer than 10 games in the first set. The Scot also has an impressive record in finals since 2008 having won 12 of 15, with eight having fewer than 10 games in the opening set. More generally, 17 of Murray’s last 25 matches have had fewer than 10 games in the first set.

Since 1990, matches between seeds with a seeding difference of less than eight at the Australian Open have had fewer than 10 games in 43/83 (52%) opening sets, including eight of 11 in finals, while the higher seed has won the first set in 57 (69%) of those matches, and furthermore half of all the 20 finals in Melbourne during this time have had -9.5 games in the first set. 10 top seeds have reached finals here in this period, with eight going on to win.

While Murray undoubtedly has the game to beat Federer, we have to favour the Swiss in a best-of-five set match and particularly in a Grand Slam final. There are also plenty of strong stats supporting Federer winning the first set and at 1.73 that is certainly worth consideration, as is the 2.1 for Federer to win the first set and win the match. However, for pure value we favour the under 9.5 games market in the first set at 2.62, while given that Federer generally opens the serving and wins the first set in these matches the 6/3 first set correct score also looks a good price.

Recommendation: Split stake Federer to win the first set 6/3 at 6.5, Paddy Power
                                   Under 9.5 games in the first set at 2.62, Coral