Odds Compilers will typically price-up matches at the beginning of the week, or in the case of midweek matches, immediately following the weekend games. Odds Compilers will have varying methods of pricing games using past statistics, recent form, key personnel injuries, suspensions, fixture importance and ‘feel’ all weighted to differing levels of importance by the individual compiler concerned.
The Odds Compiler will also be governed by the betting market itself. If their own evaluation is a long way from the general market they will adjust the price in order to avoid an arbitrage. An arbitrage is a scenario whereby the betting public are presented with a winning opportunity due to the under-round betting percentage. For example, in a two-horse race if both horses are a bigger price than 2.00 (even-money), say 2.10 each-of-two, then a level stake on both horses would produce a profit of 5% regardless of who won. Though any individual betting company will only offer one part of the arbitrage, it will be inundated with money on their own offer within the ‘arb’. Of course, this can be deliberate on the part of the bookmaker who wants to take a lot of money out of the lay. This would be more common in a sport like tennis, when there is often less than 24 hours between pricing a match and the start of the game, due to the day-to-day, round-by round nature of the sport.
Returning to football betting, one or two companies will test the water on Monday with prices available to the public before any betting industry comparisons are available. However, these will be available to small stakes only and the ‘over-round’ will be so high as to limit the likelihood of errors. As a rule, the Match Result market will have formed properly on a Tuesday before the weekend fixtures or a Monday afternoon before mid-week games. Large-staking backers will be aware that bookmakers usually accept bigger stakes closer to kick-off time, often on a Friday afternoon when team news is generally available, or in some cases in the final hour before the match begins when the actual team sheets are known.
An over-round, or payback as it is also known, relates to the theoretical percentage of profit a bookmaker will make on the odds offered. For example, in a toss of the coin the true odds of either heads or tails occurring is 2.00 (even-money). However, a bookmaker may typically offer 1.90 for either outcome and will theoretically pay back only 95% of all monies staked. Similarly, in a perfectly shuffled pack of cards, the true odds of drawing any of the four suits would be 4.00 (3/1); a bookie is likely to offer around 3.75 for each of four, theoretically paying back 94% of staked monies. The perfect, balanced book is almost never achieved however, with favourites usually representing a disproportionate weight of money and a potential loss for the bookmaker.
Once the initial price is on offer to the betting public, the Odds Compiler’s task will be to constantly monitor team news websites/sports news programmes. He (there are very few female OCs) will be looking for injury news, suspensions, flu-epidemics, transfer news, managerial casualties, anything that can persuade the OC to alter a match price, particularly new information regarding a key player/s missing the match. For cup ties, experienced OCs will be aware of which managers tend to rest players (and how many) and, having priced the game accordingly, will be checking team websites for confirmation or otherwise of a weakened side during the course of the week.
The other precursor to altered odds in the run-up to a match is weight-of-money and smart money. Odds Compilers, also known as traders, will have a maximum-loss in mind for each match, governed by the strength of belief in any lay, and the price of the heavily-backed team will be shortened when the level of money at any given point is beyond the level required. The price is also cut when consistently winning bettors, or individuals with a known connection with a team involved, want a large stake on the match. Certain companies have a strictly accountant-like approach, with a balanced book the main objective, and will always only stay as safe from a ‘top-heavy’ book as possible, and eschew taking ‘a view’.
The reason prices change most often close to kick-off time is that both injury news and weight of money are most relevant at that time. Otherwise, price changes, particularly for a mid-week cup tournament like the Carling Cup, can alter a lot soon after the display of a price due to greater uncertainty of team news causing a bigger disparity of views.
Finally, once the games kick-off, the Odds Compiler, with his set of P/L figures, or his ‘book’, in front of him will endure a stressful two hours of following the changing score lines with the final results vindicating, or otherwise, his judgement.
These days most OCs will only be able to follow the unfolding football stories with one eye as they are likely to be employed as live-bettors in sports betting’s fastest growing medium, In-Running Betting. Bookmakers began In-Running betting around six years ago in response to Betfair’s prodigious success in this field. From the humble beginnings of two or three offers — Match Result, 2.5 Total Goals and Half-time result — most bookmakers have evolved to offering a host of betting opportunities today.
Due to the array of bets on offer in any single In-Running event, most, if not all, companies have an automatic template to inform the OC of the required odds as the clock ticks down. The OC will still have to ensure that his own prices do not arbitrage with Betfair, and endeavour to watch the match unfolding so as to react instantly to possible scenarios that would radically alter prices such as a goal or a sending-off. The match suspended button can be the OCs best friend in times of doubt. Senior OCs will also exercise judgement on the outcome of the match and adjust the template-suggested odds when he feels it is warranted. In-Running betting can be an exhaustive business for OCs particularly long-running, quick-moving sports such as five-set tennis matches. Adrenalin junkies are well served by the experience.