Clubs in a position similar to where Wycombe find themselves after 24 games have not guaranteed the title in the past 16 seasons:

• Only 6/16 sides have gone on to take the title compared with seven who were in second at the time;
• 6/13 sides with a gap of two or more points have won the league;
• Even with a 4-5 point gap only 2/4 teams went on to take the title.

League Two title-winning sides have met a number of key criteria after 24 games of the season:

• No side has won with less than 41 points at this stage;
• No side has come from more than seven points behind the leader to take the title;
• No side in the last 14 seasons has come from further than five points back to win;
• 15/16 title winners had at least 12 victories by this stage.

Wycombe fit all these criteria, as will Brentford should they win one of their two games in hand. All the other sides are too many points behind, with third-placed Bradford nine points off Wycombe’s pace. While the only other team that could fit the points total and victories criteria is fourth-placed Dagenham & Redbridge, but they would have to win their next game at home to Wycombe to do so.

Brentford’s two games in hand are away to Accrington Stanley and home against Chesterfield. Should they win their next two games (Lincoln City away and Notts Co at home) they would be just two points behind Wycombe’s 24 game total:

• 3/5 sides to be second and 2-3 points off the lead have gone on to be champions;
• 3/6 sides to be second and 4-6 points back have become champions.

The fact that Brentford have to play two extra games to close the gap should not be too much of a disadvantage:

• Brentford trailed Cardiff by four points and had a game in hand but went on to take the title in 98/99;
• Brighton overturned a five-point deficit to Chesterfield in 00/01 with the aid of a game in hand to become champions while Cardiff finished second that season having been 11 points back but with two games in hand.

Wycombe’s remarkable record of only one defeat in 24 games is the best in the country and has only been done by three other teams in this league over the past 16 seasons. However, only one of those sides won the title and they had 57 points and an 11-point gap at this stage.

Despite Wycombe’s impressive stats this season, the trends suggest that there is not much value in backing them. However, with Brentford seemingly the only side able to catch the leaders, as well as being the form side in the division (they’ve taken 13 points from their last five games compared to Wycombe’s nine), there looks to be some value in supporting them at 7.5 (SkyBet).

Wycombe have already hosted Brentford this season and the match finished 0-0. The teams meet again when at Brentford on 14 March, which is game 38, in what could be a championship decider.

There have been 14 matches after week 30 in the last 16 seasons between sides in the top two. Regardless of where the match has taken place the side in first has never lost and has a record of W6-D8-L0.

(5/01/09)