Football / Reaction / Latest Transfer Rumours 25 06 2009

Latest Transfer Rumours (14/07/2009)

Bettorlogic bring you a round-up of the key stats for the star names appearing on the rumour mill this week using our unique player analysis tool Player PRO.

Chelsea's Captain John Terry

 



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NB Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least an hour of the match unless otherwise stated. The sample is based on a team’s home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.


John Terry

Since stalling over a new contract at Stamford Bridge last week rumours have been rife that John Terry may want to leave Chelsea and begin a new challenge with super-rich Manchester City. Despite the Blues new coach Carlo Ancelotti dispelling the idea of their captain leaving, reports have intimated that John Terry and Mark Hughes were staying in the same hotel in Dubai whilst enjoying a sunshine break. This story may have legs. In the last two seasons, influential defender John Terry has played in 54 matches and missed 22. In the matches where he has been available, the Pensioners have won 69% and lost 13%- with a PPG average of 2.24. In matches where he hasn’t played, Chelsea have won 59% and lost 5%, averaging 2.14 PPG, highlighting that Chelsea have slightly more success with their talismanic defender present. When it comes to goals, Chelsea score 1.78 goals per game when Terry plays and 1.68 goals per game when he doesn’t. Unsurprisingly, the Blues concede less with Terry available 0.63 goals per game compared to 0.73 goals per game when he is unavailable. This statistic is also evident in the frequency that Chelsea obtain clean sheets which happens in 59% of matches that Terry plays in and in 50% of matches he doesn’t play in.

Lucio

If Manchester City cannot manage to prise Terry away from Chelsea, there are suggestions that Mark Hughes will pounce for Brazilian International captain Lucio who has become increasingly unhappy with his position at Bayern Munich since dropping down the pecking order and could be available for as little as €7 million. Over the last two seasons Lucio has played in 56 Bundesliga matches for the Bavarians and has missed 12. In matches involving the Brazilian stopper, Bayern recorded W35-D14-L7 (63% wins, 13% losses) which works out at 2.12 points per game. When he has not played, the Hollywood Club have won 58% of their matches and lost 17% averaging only 2.00 points per game. Lucio has little effect on his teams scoring prowess but they seem to concede more often when he does play, witnessing an average 0.98 goals conceded per match compared to just 0.67 conceded when he is unavailable- a 32% decrease. They have also seen more clean sheets when Lucio doesn’t play- 50%, to when he does- 36%.

Yaya Toure

With Barcelona set to make an impending bid for Liverpool’s Javier Mascherano, Yaya Toure may be deemed surplus to requirements at the Camp Nou and Manchester United have been earmarked as potential suitors. Since the start of the 2007/08 season Yaya Toure has played in 44 La Liga matches winning 59% and losing 18% and taking 2.00 points per game. In the same time, he has missed 32 matches of which Barcelona have won 63% and lost 19% averaging 2.06 PPG. There is very little change between goals scored and goals conceded with and without the Ivorian but the Blaugrana have managed more clean sheets when their midfield enforcer has played, seeing it happen in 41% of their matches when he has featured and in 34% of their matches when he hasn’t featured.

Michael Owen

Sir Alex Ferguson and Manchester United have offered Michael Owen a lifeline. With the World Cup just around the corner can the former Liverpool man return to the top and go some way to calming the increasingly despondent Red Devils fans. Over the past two Premier League seasons his record is in keeping with that of Newcastle United- not particularly impressive. He has played in 42 matches going W9-D14-L19 (21% won & 45% lost) and has missed 34, in which the Magpies recorded W9-D9-L16 (26% won & 47% lost). Newcastle’s PPG reflects this earning 0.98 points per game when he plays and 1.06 when he has doesn’t. We’d expect Owen to affect his team’s exploits at the offensive end of the pitch but in this sample the stats remain rather similar for goals scored with and without him- in matches he has played in Newcastle averaged 1.13 goals per game and in matches where he has been absent they averaged 1.16 goals per game. In fact it is at the other end where Newcastle were adversely affected conceding 17% more goals per game with the hitman (1.54 gpga) compared to without him (1.32 gpga).

 

Karim Benzema

Real Madrid are assembling a squad featuring all of the world's burgeoning talent leaving the likes of Manchester United unable to secure a big name replacement for Ronaldo. This time they have added a known goalscorer and a spearhead to their attack with Karim Benzema. The Frenchman has been hugely influential over the past two seasons as Lyon have averaged 2.04 ppg in the 55 matches he has played compared to just 1.81 in the 21 he has missed. This drop in ppg is due to Lyon losing a third of the matches he has missed compared to just 13% of those he has played. He has also weighed in with a personal goals tally of 31 and helped the team average 1.71 goals per game when he has been playing while this has fallen by 11% without him to 1.52 goals per game.

Samuel Eto'o

Juan Laporta has stated that Samule Eto'o had received a 'stratospheric' offer from the money-men at Manchester City to acquire his services however their interest will surely have cooled following other signings. Despite scoring 36 goals in all competitions for Barcelona this season Pep guardiola has seen the Cameroon hitman as a player he'd like to replace in order to galvanize the squad as they move into a new era at the Camp Nou under his stewardship  . Eto’o has played 51 of Barcelona’s 76 matches since the start of last season and found the net on 46 occasions. With him in the team Barca have averaged 2.69 goals per game compared to just 1.76 when he has been missing – a 35% decrease.

 

Antonio Valencia

With news of Valencia's move to Man Utd we wonder just what sort of effect Valencia has on his team. Over the past two seasons Valencia has played 60 matches and missed 16 matches for Wigan Athletic. In matches where he has featured Wigan have won 35% and lost 42% compared with winning just 6% and losing 63% without him. Their PPG is also much stronger  with Valencia present earning a PPG of 1.28 compared with ansaverage of 0.50 without the Ecuadorian. Wigan are also more adept at finding the net with Valencia averaging 1.05 goals per game with the winger and just 0.31 without him. valencia also bears a distinct impact on his team's ability to score goals seeing as when he plays Wigan have failed to score in just 33% of their matches whereas when he isn't available they have failed to score in 69%of their matches.

 

Edin Dzeko

AC Milan general manager Adriano Galliani has said that he will wait another 48 hours in his attempts to obtain the Bosnian striker from Bundesliga Champions Wolfsburg who seem very unwilling to let their star player leave. Over the past two seasons Dzeko has played 46 matches and missed 22. When he has been available, Wolfsburg have won 61% and lost just 22% compared to when he hasn't played where they have won just 36% of their matches and lost 32%. This is evident in the average PPG's for when he is and isn't available 2.00 and 1.41 respectively. Die Wolfe also score more goals with the Bosnian available witnessing an average of 2.15 goals per game when he's playing and just 1.77 goals scored per game when he isn't.

 

Luis Fabiano

If the Rossoneri fail in their attempts to snatch Dzeko from Wolfsburg, the press have suggested that Sevilla's Luis Fabiano may be the man to head the line at the San Siro. The Brazilian has almost missed as many matches as he has played over the past two season's at Sevilla. In the 43 matches he played in the league since the start of 2007/08, he played 43 games and missed 33 returning 32 La Liga goals in the process. Sevilla won 51% of their matches with the Brazilian striker in the starting line-up and lost 26%. When he wasn't avaialable, the Rojiblancos won 58% and lost 39% . They avereaged 1.77 PPG with him and 1.76 PPG without him conveying very little impact. On the goal front, Sevilla also score more goals on average without the Brazilian goal machine- scoring 1.58 goals per game with him and 1.85goals per game without him.

 

Joleon Lescott

Although Everton have stated that they will issue a hands-off warning to Manchester City who look imminent to make a bid, it may be difficult to turn down a big bucks offer for the defender. Lescott has been an almost ever-present for the Toffees over the past two seasons missing just four matches over the duration. When he has played, Everton have taken an average of 1.71 PPG and have won 49% (72 matches) and lost 26% of encounters. They have also been a fairly tight unit conceding just 0.90 goals per game. In the four matches that he has missed they conceded 1.25 goals per game.  The England full-back also contributes to his sides’ ability to keep a clean sheet, with Everton doing so in 30 of 72 (42%) matches in which he has played compared to just a quarter when he doesn’t.


Joe Hart

Since the arrival of Shay Given at Eastlands, the 22 year-old Hart has found his opportunities a little thin in the water. So, with the chance to gain first team football, Mark Hughes has allowed his charge to go on loan to newly promoted Birmingham City. Since the start of last season Man City have won 35% and lost 42% of the 48 matches when Hart has played compared to winning 46% and losing 39% (of 28 matches) when he hasn’t played. The Citizen’s PPG has actually risen ever so slightly from 1.29 to 1.54 when Hart has been unavailable. Moreover, Man City have seen more matches produce +2.5 goals with their young goalkeeper- 54% than without him 39%; however they manage a very similar result for goals conceded per game with 1.33 and without 1.39. In addition, City manage almost the same amount of clean sheets with Hart (27%) than without him (29%).
 

Luis Jimenez

Gianfranco Zola has made his first acquisition of the summer, the Chilean forward Luis Jimenez from Inter Milan on a season-long loan deal. Nicknamed the Wizard, the 25 year-old has had few chances at Inter Milan. Last season under Jose Mourinho, he only got one match at the back end of the season with the title wrapped-up, an away loss at Cagliari. In the 2007/08 season he made seven appearances of which six were wins. Seven of the nine matches that Jimenez has played over the past two seasons at Internazionale have seen +2.5 goals and they managed to find the net in the first half of all of these matches. 

Diego Forlan

Last season’s European Golden Boot winner and La Liga Pichcichi Trophy winner (32 goals in 33 games) has many big clubs keeping an eye on his status, notably all conquering Barcelona. Over the past two seasons Los Colchoneros have won 53% and lost 29% of their 66 matches when Forlan plays compared with 40% wins and 40% losses of the 10 when he doesn’t which works out as 1.77 points per game with him compared to 1.40 without him. Atletico’s goals per game scored doesn’t show much change when he plays as to when he doesn’t- 1.92 compared with 1.90.
 

Javier Mascherano

With Barcelona and particularly Pep Guardiola seemingly wanting to stop at nothing to secure Mascherano’s signature will the Argentinean’s unsettled family get their wish of a new life in Catalonia or will Rafa Benitez hang on to his man. Liverpool have won 60% of their 50 matches with Mascherano and 62% of 26 matches without him. In both cases they have lost just 8%. The stats show very little change in results with or without him gaining 2.12 PPG when he plays and 2.15 when he doesn’t.
 

Alvaro Arbeloa

Big-spending Real Madrid have seemingly not emptied their coffers just yet as they pursue the signing of Liverpool’s Spanish right-back. With Glen Johnson seemingly brought in to start in defence it is likely that Arbeloa will look to join the Nuevos Galacticos. Arbeloa has played 54 matches and missed 22 over the past two campaigns. Of the matches he has played in, the Reds have won 61% and lost just 7%; when he has not played they have won 59% and lost 9% reflecting very little change either way. Liverpool’s matches seem to produce more goals when Arbeloa is playing with 54% of matches yielding +2.5 goals compared to just 41% when he isn’t in the team. This is also mirrored in both the average goals per game for and against. In matches that he does play Liverpool have scored 1.96 goals per game and conceded 0.76 whereas when unavailable or not selected they have scored 1.73 goals per game and conceded 0.64.
 

Xabi Alonso

Perhaps the pivot that Real Madrid need to sign to actually complement the top-heavy signings that they have already made and with rumours of a family rift pushing him towards a Liverpool exit there is still time to run in this latest saga. Xabi Alonso has played 43 matches and not played in 33 matches over the past two Premier League seasons. The Reds have won 65% and lost just 9% of their matches with Alonso and have won 55% of matches without him losing just two matches (6%). Alonso is evidently of importance when it comes to the results of Liverpool’s matches taking 2.21 points per game when he plays compared to 2.03 PPG when he doesn’t. They also see an increase in the average amount of goals scored with him- 1.98 compared to 1.79 without him- an 11% increase.
 

Michael Essien

Rather surprisingly, Michael Essien’s agent has revealed that his client would be open to offers from Spanish super-powers Barcelona and Real Madrid should they deem a move for the battling Ghanaian midfielder profitable. Despite Chelsea’s apparent strife at missing out on the trophies again which many attributed to the missing midfielder, the Blues have actually won a higher percentage of their matches without him than they have with him. Essien has played 31 matches since the beginning of 2007/08 and has missed 45. Of the matches that he has played in Chelsea have won 61% and lost 10% and they have averaged 2.12 PPG. When he hasn’t played, the Pensioner’s have won 69% and lost 11% averaging 2.27 PPG. There is little difference in average goals scored with- 1.71 per game with him and 1.78 per game without him. However, Chelsea see a 41% increase in the amount of goals conceded with Essien as opposed to without Essien, from 0.51 goals per game without him compared to 0.87 with him. This is also reflected in the amount of clean sheets with Essien- 45% and without him- 64%.
 

David Silva

Cash-strapped Valencia look like they will have to part company with both of their prized assets this summer- Spanish internationals David Villa and David Silva. Silva has been a long term target of both Manchester United and Liverpool with both clubs looking for a talented winger. Since 2007/08, David Silva has played 47 matches for Valencia winning 40% and losing 36% with a PPG of 1.45. In the 29 matches that he has missed Valencia have won 48% and lost 41% with a PPG of 1.55. He seems to have little impact on Valencia’s ability to score goals citing the fact that there is a 13% increase in goals scored when he doesn’t play from 1.45 goals per game to 1.66 goals per game. His absence does have an impact on clean sheets, seeing Valencia keep one in 34% of matches without him compared to just 19% with him.

 

Maicon

After a very impressive season in Serie A, Maicon has been heralded as one of the best if not the best right back in the world and it is these plaudits that are seeing him tracked by English powerhouses Chelsea and Manchester United. Maicon has played 57 matches and missed 19 matches over the past two seasons and Inter Milan’s results have not differed greatly with or without him. When he has played, the Nerazzurri have won 67% of their matches and lost 9%. In matches that he hasn’t played in, they have won 63% and lost 11% earning 2.16 PPG compared with 2.25 PPG with the Brazilian. There is also a case for Inter conceding more goals without the defender, citing a goals conceded average of 0.70 goals per game when he plays compared to 0.95 goals conceded per game when he doesn’t- an increase of 26%.
 

Andrea Pirlo

Following Carlo Ancelotti’s departure much has been made of the players that will follow him out the door at the San Siro. While Pato, Seedorf and Gattuso seem as if they’ll stay, Pirlo’s future is a little less concrete. AC Milan’s record is better when their playmaker is absent. Of the 58 matches that Pirlo has played over the past two seasons Milan have won 52% and lost 29% with a PPG of 1.74. Remarkably, when he doesn’t feature (18 matches), the Rossoneri have won 56% of their matches and have lost just 6% (one match)- with an average of 2.06 PPG. His effect on goals in matches where he does play is far more dramatic- seeing 60% muster +2.5 goals compared to just 28% when he doesn’t. This can also be seen in average goals scored and conceded per game. Milan have scored 1.95 goals per game when Pirlo is present compared to just 1.28 when he is not and they have conceded, on average, 1.07 goals per game when he plays compared with 0.61 when the midfielder is absent. Interestingly, Milan also keep 17% more clean sheets when Pirlo does not play seeing the Rossoneri blank their opposition in 33% of matches with him and 50% without him.

 

 
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