Considering that between them Millwall and Cardiff met just one Premier League opponent en-route to the Final suggests a large amount of fortune is required for a lower-league side to make the final.

Of the nine Premier League clubs outside the Big Four to reach the final, the general profile is that of a side outside the relegation zone but with no more than an outside chance of qualifying for Europe via the league. Middlesbrough were the exception in 1996/97 when the losing finalists were relegated and had just 0.86 PPG at the time of the Third Round.

The average Points Per Game (PPG) of the nine non-Big Four Premier League FA Cup finalists is 1.24, perfectly fitting the mid-table profile. West Ham United stand out in this respect with a current PPG of 1.25, in fact West Ham had 1.24 PPG before their own Cup Final appearance in 2006. If the Hammers can avoid the fire sales in January that some expect, they may confound Betfair layers that have put up 16.00 about the Irons reaching the final.

Teams outside of the Big Four that have managed to reach the semi-finals recently also fit the profile of mid-table sides with little realistic chance of European qualification via the league, but not seriously threatened by relegation either. Portsmouth were the best side based on PPG and league position at the start of the Third Round to have reached the semi-finals in the past five seasons outside of the Big Four.

Pompey had a PPG of 1.62 and were eighth this time last year. Of the other six non-Big Four Premier League teams to reach the semi-finals in the past five seasons, five were placed between 10th and 16th in the table with a PPG range of 1.00 and 1.24 with an average of 1.17; Bottom placed Watford on 0.58 PPG in 2006/07 were the exception.

Of course with an exceptionally tight Premier League table this season relegation is an issue for any club between 8th and 20th. However, Bolton and Portsmouth in 11th and 12th respectively and both with an average of 1.15 PPG most closely fit the profile of recent Premier League semi-finalists.

Seven Championship teams have reached the semi-finals in the past six seasons, and four of those teams were mid-table teams, ranging between 9th and 13th with an average of 1.38 PPG, the exact PPG of both Championship teams to go all the way to the Final in that period. Swansea and Ipswich, both with 1.35 PPG and a decent Third Round Draw, may do best of this season’s Championship teams.

Recommend: West Ham United to reach the Final 16.00 Betfair