Chelsea, however, may appeal for those who believe Sir Alex Ferguson’s team may be overburdened by a growing backlog of fixtures.
The notion that the FA Cup is a particularly democratic form of the domestic season, with its un-seeded draw and one-legged format is easily dispelled by a glance at the honours list since the inception of the Premier League.
Portsmouth’s FA Cup success last May, alongside Everton’s triumph in 1995, are the only occasions that a member of the Big Four has not won the famous trophy since the formation of the Premier League 17 seasons ago.
Prior to Portsmouth’s heroics a pattern had developed in the previous five seasons, in line with the Big Four’s increasing dominance of the Premier League, whereby the eventual winners had all averaged more than 2.00 PPG in the league when the FA Cup Third Round commenced. Indeed, the themes that cropped up for the eventual winners in the 12 seasons between Everton and Portsmouth’s unlikely victories were:
Key stats
- All of last five winners +2.00 PPG in Premier league at the start of the 3rd round
- 11/12 not defending the trophy
- Four of the previous five winners had won the league in the preceding season
- 9/12 finished in the top three in the Premiership in the preceding fixture
- 9/12 had been knocked out by the quarterfinals in one of the two previous years
- Eight of the last 10 winners knocked out by a Big Four team the previous season
Although this season’s Premier League appears to be more open than it has for many years, the top three sides have all earned more than 2.00 PPG. Manchester United fit all of the above criteria. Chelsea fit all criteria except that of reigning Premier League champions. Liverpool fail all but one of the criteria, and a first League title since 1990 will surely become all-consuming, domestically at least, for Rafa Benitez. Arsenal, in danger of losing their Big Four membership altogether, have a PPG (1.75) - lower than any winner, bar Portsmouth, since Liverpool triumphed back in 2001 with 1.71, though they were knocked out of the FA Cup last season by a Big Four team.
Recommend: Manchester United to win 5.50 generally available