Czech Republic (Bettorlogic ranking 24) v San Marino (170) (Weds, 16:20)
The Czech Republic were top seeds for Group Three when the draw was made but find themselves fifth in this six-team league with only three matches left. But they can still harbour thoughts of finishing second and potentially claiming a playoff spot with all their remaining games to be played at home. They have W/W 13 of their 14 home matches against teams with a Bettorlogic ranking 80+, 10 by a margin of at least three goals and nine ending with five goals or more.
Perennial wooden spooners San Marino have again failed to take a point in qualifying and conceded 37 goals in their eight games. On the road they have yet to score, conceding 26 times (6.5 goals per game). In fact, irrespective of the quality of opposition, they have lost their last 20 away matches to nil, on average conceding just over five goals and at best losing 3-0. Since 1995, travelling to teams ranked 10-40 their average concesion is 6.4 goals in 17 matches.
Key Stats
Czech Republic home to teams ranked 80+ in competitive matches since 1994:
- W14-D0-L0
- 13 by the W/W double result
- Nine +4.5 goals
San Marino away to teams ranked 10-40 in competitive matches since 1995:
- W0-D0-L17
- 17 by the L/L double result
- 15 +4.5 goals
- Average score line 6-0 loss
Slovenia (Bettorlogic ranking 52) v Poland (33) (Weds, 19:00)
With Group Three probably the most competitive of the nine European qualifying pools these two sides can both top the group despite sitting third and fourth (level on points). Slovenia have not lost at home this campaign, winning three of their four matches and seeing the same number of clean sheets. In their last 10 competitive home matches, they have been 0-0 at the break seven times. Hosting teams ranked 15-50 their record reads W4-D2-L9, interestingly 11 of these matches saw three goals or more and nine were level at the break.
In their last two away qualifiers, Poland have lost to both Northern Ireland and Slovakia, in high scoring matches which were level at the break. Travelling to teams ranked 30-70 they have a split record W7-D2-L6 but have not won in their last four, 13 of these 15 matches finished with three goals or more and five of the last seven were level at the break.
Key Stats
Slovenia home to teams ranked 15-50 in competitive matches since 1994:
- W4-D2-L9
- 11 +2.5 goals
- Nine HT draws
Poland away to teams ranked 30-70 in competitive matches since 1993:
- W7-D2-L6
- 13 +2.5 goals
- 5/7 HT draws
Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.38, Coral
HT draw 2.1, Bet 365
Northern Ireland (Bettorlogic ranking 48) v Slovakia (35) (Weds, 19:45)
After a hard fought draw in Poland at the weekend, Northern Ireland will need to win their final match at Windsor Park to give themselves a good chance of qualification and the loss of Saturday’s goal scorer Kyle Lafferty won’t help. However, they have a strong home record winning eight of their last nine competitive matches (W8-D1-L0), with six level at the interval. Since 2001 hosting sides ranked 20-50 they have W4-D2-L2, with seven of the eight matches being level at the break.
Slovakia know that a win on Wednesday night along with a draw in Maribor (Slovenia v Poland) would secure their place in South Africa, the country’s first major tournament since gaining independence. Since qualification for the 2008 European Championships began, Slovakia have seen 18 of their 19 games (home and away) end with three goals or more (21/19 +3.5 goals). They have played eight matches in their history against teams ranked 30-70 (W4-D2-L2), five saw +2.5 goals (half ending with four goals of more)
Key Stats
Northern Ireland home to teams ranked 20-50 in competitive matches since 2001:
- W4-D2-L2
- Five +2.5 goals
- Seven HT draws
Slovakia away to teams ranked 30-70 in competitive matches since 1995:
Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.18, Betfair