Montenegro (Bettorlogic ranking 65) v Cyprus (73) (Weds, 19:15)
Montenegro were thrashed 4-1 at the weekend by Bulgaria and stand absolutely no chance of qualification. They are still winless as an independent nation having gone W0-D4-L3 in this their maiden qualifying campaign. They will certainly be looking to accrue maximum points here as they face Cyprus, a team that Bettorlogic ranks lower than them. The Montenegrins have played just three home matches since their split from Serbia recording W0-D2-L. They have failed to score in two matches both of which finished with fewer than 2.5 goals. They have also been losing 1-0 at the break in two matches albeit to higher ranked teams in Bulgaria and Italy.
Cyprus have just pride to play for having already missed out on qualification for the World Cup finals next year. Angelos Anastasiadis’ men sit fourth in Group Eight, a point above Montenegro but have won just once in their past seven matches in all competitions. The Cypriots have recorded W6-D3-L2 away matches against teams Bettorlogic ranked 60+ in the world with seven of these matches yielding a return of three goals or more.
Key Stats
Montenegro home to teams in competitive matches since 2008:
Cyprus away to teams ranked 60+ in competitive matches since 1994:
- W6-D3-L2
- Seven +2.5 goals
Italy (Bettorlogic ranking 4) v Bulgaria (29) (Weds, 19:50)
The World Champions have yet to live up to their billing in qualifying yet top their group with a one point lead and a game in hand over second-placed, Republic of Ireland. Marcello Lippi has acknowledged that the Italians are running a little short on self-belief but has urged the Azzurri fans to not be too alarmed by his sides’ lack of impressive displays, notably the fact that they have toiled in front of goal, only winning at the weekend thanks to two Kakha Kaladze own goals. Italy have gone W7-D3-L0 at home to teams ranked between 20 and 40 in the world since 1992. They have managed a clean sheet in half of these matches and have been winning at the break in six.
Bulgaria ran out 4-1 winners against Montenegro at the weekend and need a win here in order to keep them in the reckoning. Dimitar Berbatov’s Bulgaria are third in group eight on 11 points, five behind Ireland with a game in hand, although that is away to the Italians. They have a home tie against Black Sea neighbours Georgia and an away match in Cyprus to contend with and will hope to pick up maximum points in those. Bulgaria’s qualification hopes may however hinge on this tricky away tie and results elsewhere, when the top two meet in Dublin in October. Bulgaria have gone W1-D1-L4 against top 10 teams since 1992 and have failed to score in four of these matches three of which were lost after 90 minutes. They also have a propensity to reach the break level doing so in five of six encounters with top 10 teams.
Key Stats
Italy home to teams ranked 20-40 in competitive matches since 1992:
- W7-D3-L0
- Clean Sheet in 50%
- Six HT wins
Bulgaria away to teams ranked 1-10 in competitive matches since 1993:
- W1-D1-L4
- Four failed to score
- Five HT draws
Recommendation: Italy win to nil 2.0, Paddy Power