N.B Match is scheduled to be played on Saturday 4th July.

Final Stats

•    Lower seeds have won 11 and lost 11 of the 22 Grand Slam finals since the start of 2004.
•    When one finalist played two sets and the other three sets in their semis each player has won half the 20 Grand Slam finals since the start of 1999.
•    Finalists that have won by nine or more games in their semi-final have W3-L4 in Grand Slam finals since the start of 1999.
•    Finalists that have won their semi-final by fewer than four games have W12-L12 in Grand Slam finals since the start of 1999.
•    10 of the last 42 (1999 onwards) Grand Slam finals have gone to a third set.
 

Serena Williams (Seed 2) v Venus Williams (3)

Head-to-head: Serena leads 10-10; all-square on grass 2-2
Last Meeting: Serena won 6/4, 3/6, 6/3 at Miami 02/04/09

The Williams sisters completed their expected semi-final wins over their respective Russian opponents in totally contrasting styles. Serena played out a classic to come back from match point against Elena Dementieva in the longest Wimbledon semi-final in history before Venus totally destroyed World number one Dinara Safina for the loss of just one game.

This match represents the Williams sister’s eighth meeting in a Grand Slam final and fourth at Wimbledon. Serena lead 5-2 overall and 2-1 at Wimbledon although all of her wins came in a run of five finals between the pair out of six Grand Slams in 2002 and 2003. Last years Wimbledon final between the two is their only Grand Slam final or semi-final meeting since the Australian Open Final of 2003. However they did meet in the US Open quarter-final last year with Serena winning by way of two tie-breaks.

Their overall head-to-head record at Wimbledon is 2-2 and they are all-square at three wins apiece since the start of 2008 and further back for their whole career they are level again at 10-10. Seven of Venus’ 10 wins have been in straight sets while Serena has an even split of straight set and three set wins.

In advancing to the final Venus Williams has dropped just 20 games in six matches and extended her Wimbledon winning streak to 20 with her last 17 matches all won in straight sets.

Venus’ Wimbledon record against top-four seeds is W8-L4 with half the matches going to a third set and seven containing at least 24 games. Five of Venus’ six clashes with Serena since the start of 2008 have gone to a third set and contained 24 or more games.

Serena’s record in Grand Slam finals is a very impressive W9-L2 and she has won both the Australian and US Opens since her loss to Venus in last years Wimbledon final. Where the finals have gone to a final set she has a 100% record having won all three.

Following on from her three set semi-final win it is worth noting that Serena has previously won five Grand Slam semis in a final set and on four of those occasions lifted the trophy in the final with her one failure being the 2004 Wimbledon Final against Maria Sharapova.

While Venus’s stunning semi-final display and Wimbledon record rightfully make her a slight favourite, her lack of a competitive match in this year’s Championship and the doubts over the heavy strapping around her right knee mean that we would expect Serena to be the favourite if the match heads into a final set. On this basis and the past head-to-head record we believe that Venus to win 2-0 at 3 (William Hill) or Serena to win 2-1 at 5 (Sporting Bet) look the likeliest of scores.

However, with it being so hard to split the pair for the result and the over-games and three sets prices all fairly tight we believe a better option is to back the chance of a tie-break in the final. Both players are serving incredibly well and top the tournament tables for points won on first serve at 82% for Serena and 81% for Venus. Since the start of 2005 the sisters have played eight times with five of the matches containing a tie-break and in their head-to-head Grand Slam record six of their 11 matches have contained at least one tie-break.

Recommendation: Split stake first set tie-break and second set tie-break both 5.50, William Hill
 

Last 12 Finals

Winner                       Seed    Runner-up                 Seed    Year      Result
Venus Williams          7         Serena Williams         6         2008      7-5 6-4
Venus Williams         23        Marion Bartoli             18        2007      6-4 6-1
Amelie Mauresmo    1          Justine Henin              3          2006     2-6 6-3 6-4
Venus Williams         14        Lindsay Davenport     1          2005     4-6 7-6(4) 9-7
Maria Sharapova       13        Serena Williams         1          2004     6-1 6-4
Serena Williams        1         Venus Williams           4          2003     4-6 6-4 6-2
Serena Williams        2         Venus Williams           1          2002     7-6(4) 6-3
Venus Williams          2        Justine Henin               8          2001     6-1 3-6 6-0
Venus Williams          5        Lindsay Davenport      2          2000     6-3 7-6(3)
Lindsay Davenport     3        Steffi Graf                      2          1999     6-4 7-5
Jana Novotna              3        Nathalie Tauziat          16        1998     6-4 7-6(2)
Martina Hingis             1       Jana Novotna               3          1997     2-6 6-3 6-3