N.B All matches are scheduled to be played on Friday 3rd July.

Semi-Final Stats

• First time Wimbledon semi-finalists have reached the final in just 32% (12/32) of the matches since 1990. Seeded first time semi-finalists have won nine of their 19 (42%) matches over the last 19 years.

• Interestingly, when a first time semi-finalist has also been a top four seed they have reached the final in five of their seven such matches since 1990.

• The pre-match favourite has won all of the last 10 Wimbledon Semi-Finals 

• Half of the last 38 semi-finals have been finished in three sets, although this drops to 42% when the match is an all-seed affair.

Andy Roddick (Seed 6) v Andy Murray (3)

Head-to-head: Murray leads 6-4; Murray leads 1-0 on grass
Last Meeting: Murray won 6/4, 6/2 at Doha 10/01/2009

Andy Roddick has dropped the most sets of all the remaining competitors en route to the semi-finals, six, and endured a gruelling five-set encounter with Lleyton Hewitt in the quarters.

This marks Roddick’s fourth Wimbledon semi-final appearance. He beat Thomas Johansson and Mario Ancic in 2005 and 2004 respectively but lost to Roger Federer at this stage in 2003. The American has reached nine career Grand Slam semis in total and has a W4-L5 record although three of the five losses were against Federer. Roddick has W24-L4 in 28 tie-breaks this year and his serve ensures he will be favourite in any tie-break against his opponent.

Andy Murray impressed in his quarter-final against former World Number 1 Juan Carlos Ferrero by dropping just 10 games against the Spaniard. He was, however, troubled by Stanislas Wawrinka’s power in the fourth round and is sure to be tested by Roddick’s serve. Interestingly the Scot has experienced just one tie-break in his 10 grass-court matches this season, which he lost 7-3 to Robert Kendrick in the first round here.

Murray has a W6-L3 record against seeded players at SW19 and has a W14-L9 record against players seeded 1-6 in all tournaments since the start of last year. In these matches he has played just nine tie-breaks with a W4-L5 record. 41% of the matches involving a first time semi-finalist at Wimbledon go to at least a fourth set.

Andy Murray is rightly favourite for this match, however 1.30 seems a bit short for a player who will undoubtedly be experiencing a great deal of pressure with the weight of a nation on his shoulders. Both of the players have good serves and we would expect there to be at least one tie-break in this match. The best way of taking advantage of this is to back over 40.5 games.

Recommendation: Over 40.5 games 1.83, Various



 

Tommy Haas (24) v Roger Federer (2)

Head-to-head: Federer leads 11-3; Federer leads 2-0 on grass
Last Meeting: Federer won 6/7 5/7 6/4 6/0 6/2 at Roland Garros 01/06/2009

The market appears to give Tommy Haas almost no chance of reaching Sunday’s final. Haas came closer to beating Federer than anyone in last month’s French Open. He took the first two sets 7/6/ 7/5, but won just six games in the final three sets. No player has since taken Federer to a deciding set, moreover, Philipp Kohlschreiber is the only player to win a set off the World Number 2 in his last six matches.

Haas is a better player and on better form than his world rank of 34 suggests and thanks to good performances here, in Halle and at Roland Garros he is sure to be moving up the rankings in the near future. The 31-year old is the oldest player left in the draw and has also been involved in the highest number of tie-breaks (5) of the remaining four players. He has won seven of his 10 tie-breaks on grass this year.

Roger Federer appeared to barely break sweat in his quarter-final match with big-serving Ivo Karlovic. Karlovic hadn’t previously been broken in the tournament before Federer went 2-0 up in the opening set. The reigning French Open Champion won in straight-sets and has lost just one of his last 47 SW19 matches. Interestingly Federer hasn’t dropped a single set in his six Wimbledon semi-finals and this marks his 21st consecutive Grand Slam semi-final (he has won 15 of his last 16 such matches).

It is difficult to find value in the majority of Federer’s matches, particularly when he plays at Wimbledon. Federer’s game supremacy has been four and five in his last two matches respectively. Haas’ record of getting to at least a tie-break has been impressive thus far and he was broken just twice in his four-set quarter-final match with fourth seed Novak Djokovic. Federer and Haas have gone to a deciding set in each of their last three Grand Slam meetings and thus we feel that Haas offers good value on the handicap.

Recommendation: Back Haas +5.5 Games 1.91, Stan James