Eredivisie: Willem II v NAC Breda (Fri, 19:45) - Result 1-2 (Willem Sco 1st)

1st goal: Willem have conceded first in six of their last nine home matches and had lost their previous five matches home and away before beating bottom-placed Waalwijk. Moreover, they’ve conceded first in six of their last eight home matches against top-half non-Big Two teams. NAC have scored first in half their 10 away games this season as well as in four of their last five matches overall and in eight of their nine trips to teams in the bottom four since 2007/08.

Recommendation: NAC Breda to score first 2.00, Stan James

Serie B: Frosinone v Lecce (Sat, 14:30) Result - 0-4 (H/T 0-1)

Highest scoring half = Second: Frosinone have had more goals in the second half than the first in eight of their 11 home matches this season, as well as in seven of their 13 games hosting top-half teams since 2008/09, including 5/7 against top-six sides. Lecce have had most goals in the second half in eight of their 11 away since relegation, including in all their five trips to top-half teams. Both team also have good trends for +2.5 goals, but have both scored in only three of their 11 home/away games this season respectively, as 68% of the goals in Frosinone’s home games and 73% of the goals in Lecce’s away matches this season have come after half-time.

Recommendation: Highest Scoring Half = Second 2.10, Bet365

Championship: Nottm Forest v Sheffield Wed (Sat, 15:00) - Result 2-1 (H/T 1-0)

HT/FT: Before losing to Derby last weekend Forest were unbeaten in 19 games and had won eight of their previous 10 matches home and away – all by the W/W double. Moreover, they’ve won nine of their last 10 home games, with seven W/Ws, as well as recording the W/W in their last four hosting bottom-half teams. Wednesday have lost seven of their last 13 away, with six L/Ls, and have also lost half their 10 away games against top-six teams since 2007/08 with four L/Ls.

Recommendation: Nottm Forest W/W 2.60, Boyles

League Two: Rochdale v Crewe (Sat, 15:00) - Result 2-0

Asian handicap: Rochdale have won eight of their last 11 home games with five wins by two or more goals. Moreover, they’ve won 12 of their 17 home games against bottom-half teams since the start of last season with 10 wins by two or more goals. Crewe have lost six of their last 12 away matches with five defeats by two or more goals. Moreover, top-three teams have won 61% of 102 home matches against teams placed 12th-18th since 2004/05 with 35% won by two or more clear goals.

Recommendation: Asian handicap Rochdale -1 2.20, Bet365

Segunda: Girona v Gimnastic (Sat, 17:00) - Result 0-2

1st goal: This looks set to be a close match with Gimnastic in superior form but Girona are a decent home side. However Girona are struggling defensively having conceded at least two goals in eight of their last nine matches overall. Moreover, they’ve conceded first in six of their last 11 home games as well as in each of their last four hosting teams placed 4th-12th. Gimnastic have scored first in seven of their 10 away games this term as well as in eight of their last 13 away against bottom-half teams.

Recommendation: Gimnastic to score first 2.45, Betinternet

Serie A: Palermo v Parma (Sat, 17:00) - Result 1-0 (H/T 0-0)

HT/FT: Palermo are unbeaten at home in 17 games with 12 wins, and eight W/Ws from their 11 home games that they’ve scored first half. Moreover, they’ve recorded the W/W double in four of their last five hosting promoted teams. Parma have lost their last three away, and suffered the L/L double in four of their last seven away. Moreover, they’ve conceded in the first half in nine of 11 away games since promotion. Since 2006/07, top-half non-Big Four teams hosting teams that have lost their last three away have W18-D8-L1 with 13 (48%) W/Ws.

Recommendation: Palermo W/W 2.87, Coral

Turkey: Sivasspor v Denizlispor (Sun, 12:00) - Result 2-0 (H/T 0-0)

HT/FT: Sivasspor have shown signs of form recently as they’ve scored in each of their last five games and have won three of their last six at home – all by the D/W. Denizlispor are yet to win this season – they haven’t even won a single half – and have lost 11 of their last 12 overall with seven D/Ls and four L/Ls. Moreover, they’ve lost their last 13 away with six L/Ls and seven D/Ls. They’ve also lost all eight away three against bottom-six opposition since 2008/09, with three L/Ls and four D/Ls.

Recommendation: Split Stakes Sivasspor W/W 2.75, Stan James
                                                           Sivasspor D/W 4.50, Ladbrokes

Serie A: Udinese v Napoli (Sun, 14:00) Result 3-1

Draw no bet: Udinese are without a win in seven games and have won just two of their last 15 matches, during which time they’ve lost nine times. Moreover, they’ve lost half their last six home games and four of their last nine hosting top-six sides. Napoli are in excellent form having kept six consecutive clean sheets and are unbeaten in 15 matches (W8-D7-L0), including seven away (W4-D3-L0), having taken just three points from their previous 18 away games. Since 2004/05, bottom-six teams have won only 20% and lost 48% of 178 home matches against top-six teams.

Recommendation: Napoli DNB 2.25, Stan James

La Liga: Almeria v Gijon (Sun, 16:00) - Result 3-1

Match outcome: Almeria have won half their 24 home games since the start of last season including nine of 13 hosting middle-third teams (W9-D1-L3). Gijon have lost six of their last eight matches and have a terrible away record having lost 15 of their last 21 on the road including 10 of 13 trips to bottom-half teams.

Recommendation: Almeria Win 2.20, Boyles

La Liga: Athletic Bilbao v Xerez (Sun, 16:00) - Result 2-3

Home clean sheet: Bilbao have won only one of their last five matches but that was their only home game in this time and it was against Real Madrid. Moreover, they’ve won five of their nine home games this season with four wins to nil and have won each of their last four hosting promoted teams with three wins to nil and are unbeaten against bottom-six teams since 2007/08 (W8-D6-L0) with seven clean sheets and six wins to nil. Xerez have failed to score in seven of their nine away games since promotion and are yet to win on the road (W0-D3-L6). Moreover, just three of this sample have been against teams now in the top-half and they have lost all three with two defeats to nil (GF 1, GA 12).

Recommendation: Total Away Goals = None 2.10, Bwin

La Liga: Mallorca v Villarreal (Sun, 16:00) Result 1-0

Match outcome: Mallorca have won all nine of their home games this season with eight won by two or more goals and further back have won 14 of their last 15 at home. Moreover, they’ve won 10 of 12 unbeaten home games against middle-third teams since 2008/09 and also seven of their last eight hosting top-half teams. Villarreal have lost six of their nine away games this season and 11 of their last 21 on the road (W3-D7-L11), including eight of 11 trips to top-half non-Big Two teams (W1-D2-L8).

Recommendation: Mallorca Win 2.38, BetFred

Segunda: Rayo Vallecano v Cartagena (Sun, 16:00) - Result 2-3

+2.5 goals: Vallecano have had three or more goals in six of their 10 home games this season as well as in 10 of their 15 hosting top-half teams since the start of last season, with the last six such games all featuring at least four goals. Cartagena have had over-goals in half their last eight away matches, including their last three trips to top-half teams.

Recommendation: +2.5 Goals 2.34, Betfair

Premier League: Chelsea v Arsenal (Sun, 16:00) Result 2-0 (H/T 2-0)

Half with most goals: Chelsea have had most goals in the second half in eight of their 12 home games this season, as well as in five of their last seven home games against Big Four teams. Arsenal have had most goals in the second half in seven of their 12 away games this term as well as in six of their last seven away games against Big Four teams, and nine of their last 11 trips to top-six teams. Furthermore, the second half has been the highest scoring period in five of their six away matches following a defeat since 2007/08.

Recommendation: Highest Scoring Half = Second 2.10, Stan James

Super Liga: FC Porto v Naval (Sun, 20:15) - Result 3-0

-2.5 goals: Porto have had fewer than three goals in four of their last seven home games, as well as in 24 of their 39 home games since 2007/08. Moreover, they’ve had under-goals in eight of their 13 hosting bottom-half teams since the start of last season. Naval have had under-goals in their last six away games, and in all their last 10 home and away (7/10 had -1.5 goals). Furthermore, three of their last five trips to the Big Three and five of their last six trips to top-six teams have had -2.5 goals.

Recommendation: -2.5 Goals 2.16, Canbet