This event, for which only tournament winners from the previous season are eligible, began back in 1953 as the Tournament of Champions and was first sponsored by Mercedes in 1994. It has been played in early January since 1986 but the current venue at Kapalua in Maui has hosted only since 1999 when David Duval won. Before that the tournament had spent 30 years at La Costa in Carlsbad, California.

Last year Daniel Chopra became the first winner since Steve Jones (ranked 81 in 1989) to be ranked outside the top 50 in the world. The Swede was only the 120th best player in the rankings when he beat Steve Stricker in a play-off. He is also the first player to make the top three at Kapalua when ranked outside the top 100 (48 have tried in the 10 years).

Other than Chopra there are only three former champions in the field. Davis Love won back in 1993 at La Costa but Vijay Singh (2007) and Ernie Els (2003) both triumphed in Hawaii.

Key Stats

• All bar one winner at Kapalua had finished in the top 10 in at least one of their last two events worldwide
• The last USA winner was Jim Furyk in 2001
• The Mercedes and the Sony Open (also in Hawaii) have been won by non-Americans on 11 of 14 occasions since 2001
• Nine out of 11 players at Kapalua who had finished in the top two in the Nedbank Challenge the previous month finished in the top four in Hawaii
• Twelve of 22 (55%) top-two finishers at Kapalua had won a tournament since the start of September
• In nine of the 10 years at Kapalua at least one of the top-two finishers had recorded a top-five finish worldwide since the end of the preceding PGA Tour season

Current form

It is interesting to find Anthony Kim at the top of the current form ratings as he has not won since the AT&T National back in July. Yet he has finished third in the last four events he has completed (he was also disqualified from the HSBC in Shanghai for using a damaged driver).

Camilo Villegas ranks second in this category after winning the last two events of the Fed-Ex Cup play-offs. His off-season was less successful but he looked in decent touch when finishing fifth in the Chevron World Challenge before Xmas.

It is consistency rather than anything else that sees Justin Leonard rank third above Vijay Singh. Leonard has not missed a cut since the Players and his worst finish since the USPGA is 17th (six events). His 14th place in December’s World Challenge was a tie for last place however.

Vijay has won four times in his last nine tournaments but hardly showed up in the other five and has only one other top 10 in his last 15 events (fifth in the Travelers). When he scents a victory he is currently able to deliver.

Ernie Els ranks fifth for current form (based on 15 events) but the man with arguably the best immediate form is Geoff Ogilvy, who recorded his first win on home soil last December (Australian PGA), was third in Shanghai and sixth in the Aussie Open. Ogilvy, Singh and Andres Romero, who won the Abierto del Litoral in his native Argentina (admittedly against a mediocre field), are the only players teeing up in Maui who won tournaments in the ‘off-season’.  Davis Love has not played since his win in the Disney in November.

Close-season tournaments are significant in analysing who will do well here. A good performance in the Nedbank Challenge in Sun City has regularly assisted a fast PGA Tour start in Hawaii. Of the 11 players to have arrived at Kapalua having recently finished in the top two in the Nedbank, nine managed a top-four finish in the Mercedes (81%). Kenny Perry (23.0) is the only man this applies to this week.

All bar one of the 10 Kapalua winners had finished in the top 10 of one of their last two events worldwide and it is interesting to note that the last seven winners had all recorded top-15 finishes in at least two of their last three events.

This is not really distorted by the smaller fields in some events in the off-season either: Daniel Chopra had finished second in the Australian Open and seventh in Hong Kong, Vijay (2007) did not play in the winter but had finished fifth in the Disney and eighth in the Tour Championship, Stuart Appleby (who won three in a row between 2004 and 2006) was always coming off a good set of results in Australia whilst Ernie Els (2003) and Sergio Garcia (2002) both won in Sun City before winning in Maui.

There are only 11 players in the field who have finished in the top 15 of two of their last three events worldwide:

• Cameron Beckman, KJ Choi, Ernie Els, Ryuji Imada, Trevor Immelman, Anthony Kim, Justin Leonard, Davis Love, Geoff Ogilvy, Kenny Perry and Andres Romero

Choi’s status is slightly artificial as his two qualifying results are ninth in the World Challenge and seventh in the Nedbank (both small fields).

Probably the most authentic stats in this regard belong to Ogilvy and Kim (whose results we have already mentioned) plus Els, who finished second in Singapore, 15th in the Dunlop Phoenix in Japan and third in the recent South African Open.

If we examine slightly longer term form we find that over half (55%) the 22 top-two finishers at Kapalua had won an event in the preceding 16 weeks. This effectively takes a player back to the beginning of September. Those who have done so in the field this week are:

• Cameron Beckman, Dustin Johnson, Zach Johnson, Will MacKenzie, Davis Love, Geoff Ogilvy, Ryan Palmer, Vijay Singh, Marc Turnesa and Camilo Villegas

Tournament form

Vijay has easily the best Mercedes form having finished in the top eight on his first eight starts at Kapalua and in the top two three times in the last five years. Leonard ranks second thanks to four top-eight finishes in seven starts, although he has never finished higher than fifth (1999). Els has the third-best event form and it would be better if he had not had to wait four years since his last appearance. He has finished in the top three on four of his five appearances at Kapalua with one win and one play-off defeat to Tiger (2000).

A prior top-five finish at Kapalua appears to be the requirement for a top-three if a player has teed up more than once before in the event. Of the 24 players to finish in the top three in Maui having played the event more than once, only seven (29%) had not previously finished in the top five.

In our eyes this is the main factor counting against Ogilvy, whose best finish is 13th from two appearances. Steve Lowery, Zach Johnson and Carl Pettersson are the others who fail this simple criterion.

New boys have struggled in the Mercedes generally. Chopra’s win was the second by a debutants at Kapalua after Sergio in 2002 but, as a rule, few rookies make the top three (6/106 or 6%). Limiting the analysis to debutants ranked in the top 20 that improves to three out of 12 (25%) but the victory chances of big guns Kim (10.0) and Villegas (13.0) are still seem hampered by lack of experience.

Rest of the World v USA

This has become a difficult part of the year for USA players. The opening two events of the PGA Tour season are both in Hawaii (Mercedes and Sony) and since 2001 only three of those 14 tournaments have been won by Americans — none of those was the Mercedes.

Last year Stricker was the only USA player in the top four. In 2007 the top three were all non-American. In 2006 Stuart Appleby, Vijay Singh and Michael Campbell were all in the top four. Between 2003 and 2005 only Tiger Woods (twice), Rocco Mediate and Jonathan Kaye infiltrated the top four. It is a strong pattern.

Kenny Perry looks the most likely to lead the USA challenge. His second place in Sun City augurs well and he has a third place here in 2002 to boost his confidence. Odds of 10.0 to be top American seem acceptable.

Winner/Each-way

We see Els (11.0 with VC and Coral) as the best value this week. The Big Easy has only one victory on US soil since 2004 but he loves Hawaii, where he has had three wins, two seconds, three thirds, a fifth and a 21st in his 10 starts this decade (Mercedes and Sony). He also beat Tiger in the Grand Slam of golf in 1997 in Hawaii – a rare head-to-head victory for the South African over Mr Woods. Everything points to at least a top-three finish so we’d take an each-way position.

We also feel the favourite offers something here. Vijay (6.5) is win or bust these days and it helps that this is a course he likes. While the victory run continues, he has to be backed, but only to win.

Geoff Ogilvy (17.0 with Sportingbet) is a man in form and this could be a very big year for the Australian. Were it not for his poor record at Kapalua we would be right behind him this week. In his favour is the fact that Stuart Appleby’s Mercedes record was very similar before the first of his three successive victories. Ogilvy just makes our list of recommendations.

Of the longer-priced options, Ryuji Imada (51.0 with Boylesports), Will MacKenzie (81.0) and Cameron Beckman (101.0) are the only names we’d consider. Traditionally the lower-ranked players have not had much success in Maui.

MacKenzie was fourth here in 2007 but he’d wintered in Australia that year and had some off-season form to work with. We marginally prefer Beckman, who finished 2008 with a win in the Frys.com Open, 27th in Las Vegas and 10th in Disney. Alternatively the 41.0 available for Beckman as top USA may be a preferable method to side with the American journeyman. Given the lack of success for home players and those ranked outside the top 100 in this event we’d take the top-USA option.

Recommendations

Vijay Singh at 6.5

Ernie Els at 11.0 e/w (1/4, 1-4) — equal sixth

Geoff Ogilvy at 17.0 e/w (1/4, 1-4) — winner

Kenny Perry top USA at 10.0 — fifth best-placed American

Cameron Beckman top USA at 41.0 e/w (1/5, 1-4)