West Bromwich Albion make the short trip to Villa Park rooted to the bottom of the Premier League table despite winning their last two home matches. WBA’s main problem has been scoring goals on the road: the Baggies have registered a solitary goal three times and failed to score in their remaining seven away games. In five matches on the road to top-half sides WBA have failed to score a single goal and a trip to a highflying Villa side, who have registered five clean sheets in their last eight games, doesn’t offer any obvious chance of ending that goal drought.

With only two clean sheets in 10 matches on the road this season, WBA’s inability to hit the target has resulted in eight defeats, including all four away to top-four opponents. Aston Villa have only won once in their previous five games at Villa Park, however, all of those games were against top-half opposition. Indeed Blackburn, who were 11th when beaten 3-2 at Villa Park at the end of October, are the lowest positioned team that the Villains have faced at home this season.

Aston Villa have been far more formidable at home to teams in the bottom six and promoted teams under Martin O’Neill, winning seven of nine against bottom-six opposition and five of six against newly-promoted teams. Villa won all seven of their games against bottom-six opposition when they opened the scoring. Villa won three of their four games against bottom-six opponents last season by two goals plus and four of five against promoted teams by two goals or more.

The visitors have lost their last three games at top-four opposition by two or more goals and a case could be made for Villa at -1.5 on the Asian handicap. However, with the ultra-competitive nature of local derbies, and the awful goal-scoring record of Tony Mowbray’s side on the road, Villa to win without conceding a goal looks the best option here.

Key stats

• WBA away in 2008/09 have failed to score in 7/10 including 5/5 at top-half sides.
• Aston Villa’s record is W7-D1-L1 under Martin O’Neill at home to bottom-six teams.

Recommend: Aston Villa to win to nil 2.25 Paddy Power.