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Malta (Bettorlogic ranking: 116) v Denmark (17)
Group A leaders Denmark are very short priced favourites to win in Malta, and a glance at their away record in this type of fixture suggests that the Danes will be confident of collecting three points.
Denmark are unbeaten on the road against opposition ranked 90+, in eight World Cup or Euro qualification encounters since 1990, winning six times, with all but one of those successes secured by more than a single goal margin. In fact, Denmark have won all of their last five such encounters since 1995, four of which were both W/W and beat the -1.5 Asian handicap.
Moreover, Denmark have lost only five of 23 away games in World Cup or Euro qualification this decade, four of which were against teams ranked in the top 20, with Northern Ireland’s success in Euro 2008, (then ranked 58) the exception. Similarly, none of the Danes’ eight drawn games on the road in that sample was against a nation ranked lower than 64.
However, Malta have improved in recent years, to the extent that they have held both Croatia and Turkey, each ranked 14, at home in the 2006 World Cup and 2008 Euro qualifiers.
Indeed, Malta lost 23 and drew two of their 25 home games in all qualification matches between 1995 and 2004. Compare that to the Maltese home record in the two main tournaments since 2005, when they have beaten Hungary (then ranked 59) and drawn four times, with teams ranked between 14 and 61, in 11 matches.
So on balance, despite Denmark’s healthy record in this type of match, Malta’s recent form suggests that the Danes are priced too short (best price: 1.20). Denmark’s 3-0 success against Malta in Copenhagen in October is no guarantee of another Danish win; Malta lost 2-0 in Turkey and 3-0 in Croatia before holding those two sides in the return match on their small Mediterranean island.
Malta home in competitive matches since 2005:
Denmark away in competitive matches versus teams ranked 90+ since 1990:
Portugal (Bettorlogic ranking: 10) v Sweden (12)
These two heavyweight footballing nations are languishing in fourth and fifth places respectively in Group One and this match is hugely important to both teams.
After missing out on the 1998 World Cup finals, Sweden have qualified for all of the succeeding five major finals, with their away form instrumental in those qualification campaigns. The Swedes have won 17 matches on the road and lost just three times in 24 matches since 1998. Two of those three defeats have come in their latest seven matches, though Sweden have still won four times in that spell.
Sweden have only faced teams ranked 9-19 away from home four times since 1998, winning once and losing twice, at Spain and Croatia. However, Portugal’s recent home form is a matter for concern; Carlos Queiroz’s team have won just one of their last six matches at home in competitive football over the past 18 months and that was by the minimum margin against the lowest ranked of the six, Armenia, who were ranked 79 at the time.
When European teams ranked 6-15 have faced each other this century in World Cup and Euro qualification matches, the home and away teams have shared five wins apiece, with four matches finishing all-square. Those stats, combined with the arguable decline of Portugal suggest that the hosts are far too short at the current best prices of 1.67, notwithstanding the 0-0 draw between these sides in the corresponding fixture in Sweden earlier in the campaign.
Teams ranked 6-15 against each other in World Cup and Euro qualifying since 2000:
Portugal last six home games in competitive matches:
Sweden last six away games in competitive matches:
Albania (Bettorlogic ranking: 64) v Hungary (57)
The two closest challengers to leaders Denmark meet in Tirana, and both teams will be looking anxiously over their shoulders at Portugal and Sweden waiting in the wings. Albania have won eight and lost nine of their 22 home games in competitive matches since the turn of the century. With these teams priced close to evens the pair on the Asian DNB, it is interesting to note that all but two of Albania’s home defeats this century have been against top-20 ranked opponents.
Moreover, Albania have won three and drawn two of their five matches in Tirana against 54-66 ranked opposition in the past 10 years. Of course, Hungary beat Albania 2-0 in Budapest earlier in the campaign, but their recent away record has been very poor.
Before their victory in Malta in their previous match in this campaign, the Magyars had lost seven consecutive competitive away matches in the past 30 months. Just as worryingly, two of those losses were against 83rd-ranked Moldova and 113th-ranked Malta. Hungary have won six but lost 15 of their 25 competitive away games in the past 10 years, with the only wins of note in relation to this match being obtained against Bosnia (48) and Iceland (74).
Albania home to 54-66 ranked teams in World Cup and Euro qualifiers since 1999:
Hungary away since October 2006: