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AT&T National, Congressional CC, Bethesda, Maryland
Introduction
Tiger Woods’ tournament, begun in 2007 and held at Congressional Country Club the last two years, has effectively replaced the Booz Allen Classic as the annual Washington stop on the PGA Tour. This tournament is invitational only however and has a field of only 120 players including the host himself. The event will move to Pennsylvania for the next two years as Congressional is prepared for the 2011 US Open and return in 2012.
In 2008, with Tiger absent injured, Anthony Kim came through with a 65 on the final day to clinch an impressive two-shot victory. Overnight leaders Tom Pernice and Steve Stricker shot 72 and 73 respectively to fall out of contention.
Congressional has hosted some of the biggest events on tour including the 1997 US Open won by Ernie Els over Colin Montgomerie and Tom Lehman. The venue also played host to the Kemper Open (which became the Booz Allen) between 1980 and 1986 and again in 2005. The list of champions in those years was impressive with Greg Norman and Craig Stadler each winning twice and Fred Couples, Bill Glasson and John Mahaffey also victorious. In 2005 Sergio Garcia ‘did a Kim’ shooting 65 on Sunday to pip Adam Scott, Ben Crane and Davis Love by two shots.
Key Stats
- Five of the last six winners of the AT&T National and the Booz Allen Classic have had a top-three finish at Quail Hollow CC
- Since 1994, 14 of 16 winners of the Washington stop have had a prior Major top-four finish
- Nine of the last 11 winners of tournaments at Congressional have had a prior top six finish in the USPGA
Current form
Other than Tiger, Jim Furyk has the best current form in the field this week with eight top-10s and an 11th in his last 15 events. Hunter Mahan ranks third following his impressive performances at Bethpage Black and TPC River Highlands in the last two weeks. Mahan’s last missed cut was in the USPGA 47 weeks ago.
Three other ‘young guns’, Paul Casey, Lucas Glover and Sean O’Hair fill the next three places in the current form rankings and the top 10 is completed by Robert Allenby, Mike Weir and John Senden.
Tournament form
Although still in its infancy there have already been two players who have been right in the mix both times in the AT&T National; Jim Furyk has finished third in 2007 and 2008 and he was fifth at the same venue in the 1997 US Open. Steve Stricker is the other player to have taken an immediate liking to this tournament finishing runner-up in 2007 and being in the final pair on Sunday in 2008 (before slipping back to 18th). Yet Stricker (who incidentally was also runner-up in the 2006 Booz Allen) is not here this week so the 2008 champion Anthony Kim is ranked second for tournament form. Kim, who came 25th in the inaugural event in 2007, is followed by Robert Allenby who was third last year and sixth in 2007.
Pat Perez is fifth in the rankings due to finishes of 12th last year and third the year before, whilst Rod Pampling was third in 2008 and 19th in 2007. The Aussie was also seventh on his last Booz Allen appearance, also at Congressional, in 2005.
The other members of the top 10 are the 2007 winner KJ Choi who was 49th last year, Hunter Mahan (12th in 2008 and eighth in 2007), Jeff Overton, Rocco Mediate and the host Tiger Woods.
Players who have had top-twos in Washington at the Booz Allen/Kemper Open are:
- Stuart Appleby, Rich Beem, Fred Couples, Bob Estes, Fred Funk, JJ Henry, Charles Howell, Lee Janzen, Davis Love, Steve Lowery, Nick O’Hern and Corey Pavin
Other tournaments
Results at the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina seems to be a reasonable pointer to performances in Washington as five of the last six winners of the AT&T national and the Booz Allen have also had a top-three finish at Quail Hollow. There is a historical connection here too as the Booz Allen Classic was played at Quail Hollow between1969 and 1979.
Anthony Kim won the Wachovia at Quail Hollow in 2008 nine weeks before his Congressional triumph, Steve Stricker was runner-up in both events in 2007 whilst Sergio Garcia, the 2005 Booz Allen winner at Congressional, had finished second at Quail Hollow five weeks earlier.
Ben Curtis won the 2006 Booz Allen at the TPC at Avenal Potomac and was runner-up to Kim in the 2008 Wachovia. The 2005 and 2004 Booz Allen winners were Adam Scott and Rory Sabbatini and both have since finished in third at Quail Hollow - in 2006 and 2007 respectively.
Whilst we won’t try to predict here who might do well at Quail Hollow in the future, it is worth knowing that following players have finished in the top three in the past:
- Jason Bohn, Jim Furyk, Lucas Glover, Anthony Kim, Sean O’Hair, Vijay Singh, Bubba Watson and Tiger Woods
Ted Purdy, Jason Dufner and Tim Petrovic all tied for fifth this year.
The USPGA is also significant as nine of the last 11 winners of tournaments at Congressional have had a prior top-six finish in the fourth Major. Anthony Kim (2008), whose best finish was 20th before last year, and Bill Glasson (1985), who had never played it, are the two exceptions.
Winner/Each-way
Can anyone beat Tiger this week? We feel the distractions of hosting an event of this size make him unattractive at 3.0 and we prefer to take Jim Furyk at 17.0 each way. Tiger does have a good record in the Chevron World Challenge, which he also hosts, with four wins but this is a much bigger deal and his sixth place in the inaugural event, seven shots behind winner KJ Choi, suggests to us that he is vulnerable. It’s a tight call but Furyk has the best current form after Tiger and the best Congressional form of anyone.
Although the high of winning the US Open may prove tough to deal with, we feel Lucas Glover (46.0 with Totesport) shapes up as real contender here. Glover was 12th in 2007 despite a 74 on Sunday and has a runners-up performance at Quail Hollow nine weeks ago to fuel our support.
Bubba Watson (61.0 with Betfred) is on a relative hot streak right now and, like Glover, he was second to Sean O’Hair at Quail Hollow. Watson has finished in the top 25 of his last three events and is beginning to suddenly look like a potential contender for the Presidents’ Cup.
Davis Love (71.0 with Bet365) was second at Congressional in the 2005 Booz Allen and has not played a tournament since finishing fifth at Muirfield Village four weeks ago. We believe this is an event that suits players who do well in the Majors and Love has a top-three finish in all four of them including a win in the USPGA. Whilst that sort of form is probably a thing of the past, Love ranks a highly respectable 19th in the field for current form and is still officially in the world’s top 50. He was 27th here last year when ranked 154 in the world so there is definitely room for improvement.
Jeff Overton (91.0 with Bet365) catches the eye this week as he ranks 17th for current form and eighth for tournament form. We rank him 26th in our overall ratings compared to his 59th place officially within the field. Overton was ninth here last year when ranked 309 and that was on the back of six missed cuts in seven events. He is playing far better now…
Recommendations
- Jim Furyk at 17.0 e/w (1/4, 1-5)
- Lucas Glover at 46.0 e/w (1/4, 1-5)
- Bubba Watson at 61.0 e/w (1/4, 1-5)
- Davis Love at 71.0 e/w (1/4, 1-5)
- Jeff Overton at 91.0 e/w (1/4, 1-5)