Form factors

The Allsvenskan has a relatively average home bias, with home sides winning 44% and losing 28% of their games since the start of the 2004 season (1037 matches).

Form provides a good indicator of the likely match result although the home side’s form – both home and overall form – are far more reliable than the away side’s. For the home team their form for the last one, three, or five games both at home and overall (home and away) provide good correlations for the next match outcome although their five-game overall stats are the strongest.

For the away team, form is a less useful indicator with away form only providing a good correlation when looking at the last away match. However, overall form provides a good indicator when looking at the last five matches.

In matches where the home side has a strong five-game overall form (nine or more points) they are the dominant side regardless of the away teams five-game overall form – winning 55% of matches.

In all other situations there is fairly linear relation whereby the home team’s results improve as their form improves and the away team’s form declines, and vice-versa. This correlation is strongest where the away team has no form, either weak or strong (six to eight points from last five matches) and then the better the home sides form the better their results.

Key points and what to look for:
•    Home and away teams overall form for their last five matches. Strong form is represented by nine or more points from their last five matches with weak form being less than six points.

Goals

Matches in Sweden average 2.57 goals per game (1.46 for the home side and 1.10 for the away) with 47.5% having three or more goals.

There is very little correlation between the recent goals form of the home and away teams and the chance of an over-goals match. However the away teams recent overall goals form (last 10 matches home and away) is a dominant factor in whether a match has over-goals regardless of the home side’s trend.

If the away team has had over-goals in six or more of their last 10 matches then there are three or more goals in 50% of matches. However when the away team has had over-goals in fewer than four matches there are over goals just 42% of the time.

Key points and what to look for:
•    Look at the away sides last 10 matches (home and away).
•    For under-goals look for away teams with seven or more under-goals matches in their last 10 games.
•    For over-goals look for away teams with six or more over-goals matches in their last 10 games.

Clean sheets

Home team’s have averaged clean sheets in 35% of their matches and failed to score 25% of the time since the start of the 2004 season.

Looking at teams’ recent clean sheet and fail to score records we can establish some good indicators for events in the next match. When trying to ascertain the chance of a home clean sheet the most important factor is the home team’s recent home record (last 10 games) for keeping clean sheets.

However, the chance of an away clean sheet is not greatly affected by clean sheet form remaining fairly constant regardless.

Clean sheet form is a fairly good indicator of the likely match outcome. In particular the away team’s recent overall form (last 10 matches home and away) for keeping clean sheets and failing to score is particularly relevant while the home team’s recent records at home and overall both provide good correlations for the match outcome.

Key points and what to look for:
•    The home team’s recent home record for clean sheets is the dominant factor for the chance of a clean sheet with away clean sheet form having little effect.
•    There have been home clean sheets in 46% of the 222 matches that the home team has kept five or more clean sheets in their previous 10 home matches.

Half-time draws and first half clean sheets

Swedish games have been drawn at half-time 45% of the time with the home team being ahead in 33% of matches. 33% of the matches have been goalless at the end of the first half.

There is a link between a teams recent ability to keep clean sheets and score in the first half and the half-time outcome in their next match. Unfortunately the correlations are not that consistent when looking for half-time draws and wins by comparing both home and away teams’ recent first half clean sheet records.

However, as a more general trend it can be said with some confidence that the better the home team’s first half clean sheet record and the worse the away team’s first half scoring record the better the home teams does, and vice-versa. The best indicator for the home team is their recent overall record (last 10 matches home and away) and for the away team it is their recent away record.

HT/FT

The average amount of home W/W’s in Sweden is 25% while away W/Ws occur 16% of the time.

The dominant factor for predicting home W/Ws has been the home side’s recent overall (last 10 games home and away) W/W form. The away side’s recent overall L/L record (last 10 games home and away) has also provided a good correlation for the chances of a home W/W.

For away W/Ws the most important factors are the away team’s recent away (last 10 away matches) W/W record and secondly the home team’s recent overall L/L record.

Key points and what to look for:
•    For home W/Ws look for matches where the home team has recorded a W/W in three or more of their last 10 matches overall or the away team has suffered three or more L/L results in their last 10 games overall. When both criteria have been met the home team has recorded W/W in 36% of 84 games.
•    For away W/Ws look for matches where the away team has had W/Ws in three or more of their last 10 away games and the home team have had three or more L/Ls in their last 10 games overall. When both criteria have been met the away team has W/W in 22% of 64 games.