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Form factors

Despite a fairly strong home bias (48% home wins, 28% draws, 24% away wins) in regular season games since the re-expansion (2004) of the MLS, teams’ short- and medium-term form show relatively little correlation with their ensuing results.

This is particularly the case with home form, with next-to-no difference in a team’s result in a match given differing levels of form over a one-, three- or five-game period. Indeed, there is actually a slight negative correlation between a team’s last home result and their next one, with sides coming off a win historically doing worse than those that drew or lost their previous home match.

There is a better relationship between a home team’s results and their overall (home and away) form, although it is more a case of teams in poor (averaging less than a point per game) form performing less well — with little difference between those in middling and good form. Three-game form appears to be the best indicator of a home team’s performance, with five-game form only distinguishing between the weaker sides and the rest.

Similarly to the home sides, there is not a particularly strong correlation between an away team’s form and the result of their next match, with both away and overall form performing similarly. A team’s last result (again, away or overall) has no impact on their next match whatsoever, with the longer (five-game) form periods performing best — particularly overall.

Comparing teams’ results when in different form indicates that the away sides’ form is only particularly relevant when strong — having taken nine or more points from their last five games (home and away). Home teams’ results are largely the same, irrespective of their own form, against away teams with middling or poor recent records. By contrast, home teams with strong form (five or more points from their last three games) perform similarly well against all away teams but those with lesser form perform in line with their opponents quality.

Key points and what to look for:

• Home form is particularly unreliable with overall performance more relevant for home sides.
• Three-game form is the best indicator for home teams but longer (five-game) periods are better predictors for away sides.
• Home teams that have taken five or more points from their last three games overall are similarly dominant against all away sides (W53%-D25%-L22% combined).
• Away teams that have taken five points or fewer from their last five games overall struggle similarly against all home sides (W51%-D26%-L23% combined).

Goals

Over the last five years, games in the MLS have been quite high scoring, averaging 2.70 goals per game, although only just over half (51.0%) of games have featured three or more goals. While there are weak correlations between teams’ points form and their match results there is hardly anything in a team’s goal form (+2.5 goals games in their last 10 matches) which indicates the probability of an over goals game in their next match.

The one area that shows some consistency is games involving two teams with strong over-goals form (six or more from their last 10), be it home/away or overall. In contrast, games between two under-goals sides are no more or less likely than average to produce three goals or more.

Key points and what to look for:

• Goals form is generally unreliable and should be focused solely on games between two games with complementary over-goals form (six or more over goals games in their last 10).

Clean sheets

There is quite a good link between a side’s overall clean sheet form and their chances of keeping another one in their next home match and also with the visiting side’s recent (10-game) history of failing to score in all games. Beyond that, however, there is little to go on, with home and away clean sheet form (both for and against) showing very little correlation with the result of the next game.

As well as being a good predictor of a home team’s likelihood of keeping a clean sheet, the all-game figures for the home side’s clean sheets and away team’s failures to score are both very good indicators of match result — better in fact, than any of the form considerations.

Key points and what to look for:

• Overall form for both the home side’s clean sheet record and the away side’s failure to score record are the best indicators of a home clean sheet. There is little consistency between clean sheet form figures and the likelihood of an away clean sheet.
• For home clean sheets, look for away sides that have failed to score in four or more of their last 10 games (34% home clean sheets). Also, avoid home teams that have kept fewer than two clean sheets in their last 10 matches, with those sides managing a clean sheet in only 23% of games — compared to 35% for all other home teams.
• Home sides with a good clean sheet record (four or more in their last 10 overall) have a 1.86 PPG in their next home game (54% wins), compared to 1.69 (47% wins) for those with three or fewer.
• Away teams with a strong history of scoring (fewer than two failures to score in their last 10) have a 1.18 PPG (41% losses), compared to a 0.98 PPG (50% losses) for all other sides.

Half-time draws and first half clean sheets

A home team’s recent history (last 10 games) of first-half clean sheets — both at home and overall — appears to be the best indicator of half-time draws in games. The away team’s first-half history and home team’s record of failing to score in the first half show little relation to the likelihood of a half-time draw.

However, while both the home team’s first-half clean sheet history at home and overall are good indicators of half-time draws, it is the home record which is the better predictor of goalless first halves.

Key points and what to look for:

• The home team’s first-half clean sheet form is the key indicator for half-time draws, with their first-half fail-to-score history and all away form showing little correlation.
• For half-time draws look for matches where the home side has kept a first-half clean sheet in at least half of their last 10 games overall (45% half-time draws compared to 37% otherwise).
• An even better pointer for half-time draws and, in particular, goalless first halves, is a home team with seven or more half-time clean sheets in their last 10 home games, with those sides recording half-time draws in 48% of their games (34% HT 0-0), compared to 40% (28% HT 0-0) otherwise.

HT/FT

The likelihood of a home win/win shows little relation to either the home team’s win/win form or the away team’s loss/loss record. Indeed, some of the form figures show an inverse relationship, with home teams with strong home win/win form (four or more from their last 10 home games) recording another one in only 24% of games — compared to 30% for teams with poorer recent records. By contrast, the away win/win shows a good correlation with most of the home and away form figures, in particular for the away team themselves.

Key points and what to look for:

• Home W/Ws appear to be unrelated to either home W/W or away L/L form, showing negative correlations in some cases.
• Away W/Ws are strongly linked to away sides’ W/W form, both away and overall. Away teams with two or more W/Ws in their last 10 away games recorded another W/W in 15% of their games (12% otherwise). Home L/L overall form is also a good indicator of the away W/W, with home sides recording one or no L/Ls in their last 10 games suffering a L/L in only 11% of their games, compared to 14% otherwise.