With Form Lab PRO you can access the form for this League six other Leagues that span the European Summer.

Click Here to subscribe to Form Lab PRO and have a free 14 day trial.

Form factors

The J.League shows a relatively weak home bias, with home sides winning only 44% and losing 32% of their games in the single-league (2005 – present) era. This is reflected somewhat in the form-based trends in the league in that time. The overriding trend is that for a home team their home (points) form is more relevant to their chances in the game than their overall (home and away combined) form while, for an away side, their overall record is a better predictor of success (or lack thereof) in their coming match.

It should be noted that the home side’s form shows a stronger correlation with performance than the away side’s does, while the difference between the two teams’ recent points hauls is slightly stronger again. Interestingly, there is a negligible difference between the correlation between the difference in the two teams’ overall or home-away forms and the outcome of the match.

In terms of the relevant time periods for the form, a team’s previous home match is a relatively good predictor of their next (home) result, with longer (three/five) game form figures only moderately improving the correlation. A team’s last away result shows next-to-no correlation with the result in their next game, with three-game away form performing better than both that and longer (five-game) form. Three-game form also fares best for both the home and away teams’ all-game form. Five-game form comes in to its own when considering the difference between the two teams’ recent results — particularly for the all-game form.

Comparing teams’ results when in different form indicates that the away side’s form is the dominant factor in games in which the home side has poor (fewer than four points from their last three games) form, while teams with good (seven or nine points) home form perform at a similar level against all away sides, irrespective of form. On the flip side, away teams with poor (fewer than three points) form struggle to a similar extent against all home teams, with teams in better form showing a more steady improvement in results as the opposition’s home form decreases.

What form to look for:

• Home teams’ home form but away sides’ overall form.
• Form has a relatively short lifetime, with three games the best performance indicator overall.
• Home teams with good (seven or more points) three-game form do similarly well against all away sides, regardless of form.
• Away teams with poor (fewer than three points) three-game form struggle similarly against all home sides, regardless of form.

A team’s overall (home and away) form is a better indicator of away performance than just their away form.

Goals

As with the match outcome, the goal tendencies of games in Japan appear to be influenced more heavily by the home team’s home goals form and the away team’s overall goals form. The number of goals — and thus likelihood of an over goals game — appears to be far more heavily influenced by the presence of a team with strong over-goals form (seven or more of their last 10 games containing more than two goals) than one with strong under under-goals form (four or fewer with more than two goals from their last 10). Indeed, the average number of goals and likelihood of over goals is largely the same in matches between a strong over-goals side and a strong under-goals side as it is between two strong over-goals sides. The exception, and source of the most under-goals games, are matches between either two under-goals teams or one under-goals side and a team with no discernible over/under goals trend.

The presence of an over-goals team is much more significant for the goals markets than that of an under-goals team.

Average home team stats in single-league era (2005-present):

Goal time breakdown

Time         % of match goals – home average – away average

0-15         12.2 – 0.19 – 0.16
16-30       13.5 – 0.21 – 0.18
31-45+     15.6 – 0.24 – 0.20
46-60       17.1 – 0.28 – 0.21
61-75       18.3 – 0.27 – 0.25
76-90+     23.3 – 0.37 – 0.30

Clean sheets

Unlike the goals and result markets, a team’s ability to score and keep clean sheets appears to be dictated much more by their track record of doing so at home or on the road rather than their overall record of doing so. Also, there is a much stronger correlation between a side’s record of failing to score and their opponents keeping a clean sheet than there is between a team’s record of keeping a clean sheet and them doing so.

Oddly, while the incidence of clean sheets in a game appears to be more closely linked to a team’s opponents’ recent record of scoring, a team’s own clean sheet record is the stronger predictor of match result — particularly in the case of a home team’s home clean sheet record.

A team’s likelihood of keeping a clean sheet is influenced more by their opponents form in failing to score than their own recent clean sheet history.

Half-time draws and first half clean sheets

While there is definitely a link between a team’s record of scoring and failing to score in the first half and their likelihood of recording a half-time draw in their next game it is not particularly strong. The only trend which shows any consistency as a predictor of half-time draws and, in particular, goalless first halves, is the all-team form (over 10 games) for the home side’s first-half clean sheet.

HT/FT

The home win/win is much more strongly influenced by the home team’s previous (10-game) W/W form than the away side, with home (and away) form also a better indicator of the outcome than the all-game form. Similarly, the away win/win shows a much stronger correlation with the home team’s L/L record than with the away team’s W/W history and again, the home/away records show a stronger link with the outcome than do the all-game ones.