Form factors

The Veikkausliiga has a relatively average home bias, with home sides winning 43% and losing 31% of their games since the start of the 2004 season (947 matches).

Form provides an excellent indicator of the likely match result. In terms of timeline home teams one-game form (either last home match or last game home or away) is irrelevant, as to some extent is their three-game home form. However, three-game overall form provides a very effective guide as do five-game overall and five-game home form. For away teams one, three, and five-game form are all good indicators of next match outcome with the most reliable being the five-game overall and five-game away forms.

In matches where the away side has a strong five-game overall form (nine or more points) they are the dominant side regardless of the home team’s three-game overall form. For example when the home team has strong form (six or more points) they have gone W33-D28-L39% and when they have had weak form (0-3 points) they have gone W37-D24-L39%.

In all other situations there is fairly linear relation whereby the home team’s results improve as their form improves and the away team’s form declines, and vice-versa.

Key points and what to look for:
•    Home teams overall form for three or five matches.
•    Away teams overall form for last five matches overall and last five away.
•    Away teams with nine or more points from their last five matches overall are dominant regardless of opposition form (away win 38% over 302 matches).
•    Away teams that have won two or more points from their last five away matches than home teams have managed from their last five matches overall are dominant (W48-D28-L23%).

Goals

Matches in Finland average out at 2.61 goals per game (1.47 for the home side and 1.14 for the away) with a little under half of matches (48.5%) having three or more goals.

While the correlation between a team’s recent goals form and the chance of an over-goals match (+2.5 goals) is not that strong there is still a reasonable link between a home team’s recent home record (last 10 matches) and an away side’s recent overall record (last 10 home and away).

When comparing these records, the number of over-goals matches increases fairly linearly as the respective home and away side’s record of over-goals matches’ increases.

To a lesser extent there is also some correlation between the home teams’ home record again, and this time the away team’s away record.

Key points and what to look for:
•    The match-up between home sides’ home form and away sides’ overall form is the most relevant while the away sides’ away form can also be a useful indicator.
•    For over-goals matches look for match-ups between home teams with six or more +2.5 goal games in their last 10 at home against away teams with six or more in their last 10 overall (58% = +2.5 goals).
•    For under-goals matches look for match-ups between home teams with seven or more -2.5 goal games in their last 10 at home against away teams with seven or more in their last 10 overall (65% = -2.5 goals).

Clean sheets

An analysis of the home and away teams’ record for clean sheets and ability to score provides some very useful indicators towards the chances of clean sheets, over-goals, and match result. The average home clean sheet figure is 36% and the away clean sheet figure is 27%.

Generally for home teams their overall record is more relevant than their home record while for away sides the away record is the more useful although their overall record is also a very good indicator.

To ascertain the chance of a home clean sheet the most important data to look at is the home side’s recent clean sheet overall record (last 10 home and away).

For establishing the chance of an away clean sheet the away team’s recent clean sheet away record (last 10 away) is most important while the home team’s recent overall record of failing to score is also useful.

The away team’s recent away record for failing to score provides a useful guide to the chance of an over-goals match with the number of +2.5 goal matches increasing as the away team’s ability to score decreases (number of fails to score increases). The home team’s home fail to score record is also useful with the amount of +2.5 goal matches decreasing as the home team’s ability to score decreases.

All criteria provide good linear relationships for match outcome with the home team’s overall clean sheet and fail to score the best for the home team and likewise the away team’s overall clean sheet and fail to score record the best gauge for the away team (although the away record is almost as good). As expected a team’s results improve in-line with an improving clean sheet record and increasing opposition fail to score while they become worse as their number of fails to score increases and the oppositions clean sheet record improves.

Key points and what to look for:
•    For home clean sheets look for home teams with five or more clean sheets in their last 10 matches (home and away) – CS in 42% of 177 relevant home matches.
•    For away clean sheets look for away teams with four or more clean sheets in their last 10 away matches – away CS in 38% of 250 relevant matches. Also look for home teams that have failed to score in four or more of their last 10 matches (home and away) – away CS in 32% of 326 relevant matches. Combined criteria – away CS in 44% of 94 relevant matches.
•    For over-goals matches look for away teams that have failed to score in five or more of their last 10 away matches (+2.5 goals in 51% of 174 relevant matches). Also look for home teams that have failed to score in no more than one of their last 10 home matches (+2.5 goals in 54% of 177 matches). Combined result is +2.5 goals in 57% of 44 relevant matches.
•    For under-goals matches look for away teams that have failed to score in no more than two of their last 10 away matches (-2.5 goals in 58% of 213 relevant matches). Also look for home teams that have failed to score in four or more of their last 10 home matches (-2.5 goals in 59% of 220 relevant matches). Combined result is -2.5 goals in 61% of 57 relevant matches.

Half-time draws and first half clean sheets

Finnish games have a relatively low number of half-time draws with 41.5% of matches being level at half-time on average and 33% being 0-0 at the interval. However, there is a good link between a team’s ability to keep first half clean sheets and the half-time result.

For predicting half-time draws the most important factors are the away team’s recent first half away clean sheet record (last 10 away games) and also recent overall first half clean sheet record. As the number of first half clean sheets increase for these factors the number of half-time draws increases.

The home side’s recent home first half clean sheet record is also important although this works in reverse, so as the number of clean sheets increases this actually produces fewer half-time draws.

The same factors also apply for forecasting half-time 0-0 draws and each provide a good correlation.

Home first half wins can also be predicted using these same criterion although in this case the opposite affect occurs so that where before half-time draws were increasing this would mean half-time wins were decreasing and vice-versa. As a result this means that first half losses for home teams are fairly unaffected by first half clean sheet records.

Key points and what to look for:
•    For half-time draws and goalless first halves look for away teams with seven or more first half clean sheets in their last 10 away matches (HT draw = 48% and 0-0 = 41% in 238 games) and last 10 matches overall (HT draw = 45% and 0-0 = 37% in 328 games). Also look for home teams that have had fewer than six first half clean sheets in their last 10 home matches (HT draw = 45% and 0-0 = 36% in 238 games).
•    In 65 matches where the home team has had fewer than six first half clean sheets in their last 10 home games and the away team has had seven or more first half clean sheets in their last 10 away games there have been 57% half-time draws with 48% 0-0.
•    For home half-time wins look for away teams with fewer than five first half clean sheets in either their last 10 away matches or last 10 games overall and home teams with seven or more first half draws in their last 10 home games. This combination has provided half-time wins in 56% (and W/W in 51%) of 89 matches.

HT/FT

The average amount of home W/W’s in Finland is 27% while away W/Ws occur 18% of the time.

The dominant factor for predicting home W/Ws has been the away side’s L/L form. The away side’s recent overall L/L record (last 10 games home and away) has provided the best correlation for the chances of a home W/W although the recent away L/L record (last 10 away games) is also a good guide – particularly when it is a strong L/L form (four or more L/L results in their last 10 away matches).

For away W/Ws the most important factors are the away team’s recent overall W/W record and secondly the home team’s recent overall L/L record.

Key points and what to look for:
•    For home W/Ws look for matches where the away team has suffered L/L in four or more of their last 10 away matches (home W/W in 43% of 196 matches) or the away team has suffered three or more L/L results in their last 10 games overall (home W/W in 37% of 317 games). When both criteria have been met the home team has recorded W/W in 46% of 153 games.
•    For away W/Ws look for matches where the away team has had W/Ws in three or more of their last 10 games overall (away W/W in 22% of 327 games) and the home team has had three or more L/Ls in their last 10 games overall (away W/W in 22% of 313 games). When both criteria have been met the away team has W/W in 27% of 110 games.