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Form factors

The League of Ireland shows a relatively weak home bias, with home sides winning only 41% and losing 33% of their games since the start of the 2004 season (999 matches) including winning only 40% and losing 33% of matches since the league was revamped at the start of the 2007 season. This is reflected somewhat in the form-based trends in the league in since the start of 2004 with the team in better form tending to be the more successful regardless of location.

The overriding trend is that for a home team their overall (home and away points combined) form is more relevant to their chances in the game than their home form while, for an away side, their away record is a better predictor of success (or lack thereof) in their coming matches. However, it should be noted that the home side’s home form also shows a strong correlation for their coming matches as does the away side’s overall form.

In terms of the relevant time periods for the form, a team’s previous home match is a relatively good predictor of their next (home) result, with longer (three/five) game form figures showing strong correlations for both the overall form and the home form. A team’s last away result shows a slight correlation with the result in their next game, with three-game away form and five-game away form both providing strong correlations. Five-game form fares best for the home team’s all-game form while three-game form fares best for the away team’s all-game form.

Comparing teams’ results when in different form indicates that the side with the better form is dominant while teams with similar form will produce an even set of results. This is reflected in teams with good away form (eight or more points from their last five away matches) being dominant over home sides with anything less than good overall form (nine or more points from their last five matches overall) and producing an average set of results against home teams in good form.

Key points and what to look for:

• Home teams’ overall form but away sides’ away form.
• Form has a moderate lifetime, with five games the best performance indicator overall.
• Home teams that have won three or more points from their last five games overall than away teams have from their last five away matches are dominant (W53-D25-L22%).
• Away teams that have won two or more points from their last five away matches than home teams have managed from their last five matches overall are dominant (W48-D28-L23%).

Goals

The majority of matches in Ireland are relatively low scoring affairs with just 41% of matches since the start of 2004 having three or more goals. The goal tendencies of games in Ireland appear to be influenced much more heavily by the away team’s goals form (last 10 matches) – both away goals form and overall goals form.

The source of most over-goals games is when the away side has strong over-goals overall form (six or more with more than two goals in their last 10) regardless of the home team’s recent history. While there is a slight increase in over-goals matches as the home side’s over-goals form becomes stronger it is only significant where the home team has strong over-goals home form.

The source of the most under-goals games, are matches where the away side has a strong under-goals form (three or fewer with more than two goals from their last 10) in either their last 10 away matches or last 10 matches overall. Other sources of under-goals games are where the away side has no discernible away-goals form (four or five matches with more than two goals from their last 10 away matches).

Key points and what to look for:

• The away team’s goals trend is the dominant factor in whether a match will have over or under-goals.
• For over-goals matches look for away teams with +2.5 goals in at least six of their last 10 matches (home or away) – in particular when the home team has also had +2.5 goals in at least six of their last 10 home matches. There have been 178 matches in our sample where the away team has +2.5 goals in six or more of their previous 10 games and 47% (odds 2.13) of the next matches have seen +2.5 goals. This is compared with the average of 41% (odds 2.44).
• For under-goals matches look for away teams with -2.5 goals in seven or more of their last 10 matches (home or away) or seven or more in their last 10 away matches only. Also look for away teams with -2.5 goals in five or six of their last 10 away matches. Both these filters create -2.5 goals in 62% (odds 1.61) of matches.

Clean sheets

There is a strong correlation between a side’s record of failing to score and their opponents keeping a clean sheet. In particular this correlation is strongest when looking at the away team’s away clean sheet record (last 10 matches) and the home side’s record of failing to score in their matches overall (last 10 matches home and away). The strongest indicator for a home clean sheet is the opponents overall record of failing to score.

The strongest indicators of the actual match result are the home side’s home clean sheet record and the away side’s away clean sheet record while the away side’s away record for failing to score is also a strong indicator.

Key points and what to look for:

• A team’s likelihood of keeping a clean sheet is influenced more by their opponent’s overall form in failing to score than their own recent clean sheet history.
• For a home clean sheet look for away teams that have failed to score in at least half their last 10 matches (home and away). Our sample of 999 matches has home clean sheets in 36% (odds 2.78) of matches while with this filter 42% (odds 2.38) of 225 matches have home clean sheets.
• For an away clean sheet look for match-ups where the away team has kept clean sheets in at least half their last 10 away matches and/or the home side has failed to score in at least half their last 10 home matches. The average for away clean sheets is 32% (odds 3.1) but in the 231 matches that the away side has at least five clean sheets in their previous five away matches their have been 44% (odds 2.27) away clean sheets.
• If either home or away team have kept clean sheets in at least half their last 10 home or away matches respectively this provides a good indicator for the likely match outcome. The average home results are W41-D27-L33% while in 266 matches where the home team has kept at least five clean sheets in their previous 10 matches the results are W46-D29-L24% and in 231 matches where the away team has at least five clean sheets in their previous 10 away matches the results are W26-D32-L42%.

Half-time draws and first half clean sheets

There is a link between a team’s record of scoring and failing to score in the first half and their likelihood of recording a half-time draw in their next game and it is strongest when looking at the away side’s clean sheet record overall (last 10 matches home and away).

This produces a strong correlation between half-time draws and clean sheets with half the matches involving an away team with a strong first-half clean sheet overall record being drawn at half-time and 42% of these matches being goalless at the interval.

Key points and what to look for:

• The away team’s overall form for first-half clean sheets is the key indicator for half-time draws and goalless opening periods.
• For half-time draws (and goalless opening periods) look for matches where the away side has kept at least eight first-half clean sheets in their last 10 matches (home and away). There have been half-time draws in 45% (odds 2.22) of the matches in our sample with 37% (odds 2.70) being 0-0 at half-time. In the 244 matches where the away team has kept at least eight first half clean sheets in their previous 10 matches (home or away) their have been 50% half-time draws (odds 2.0) and 42% (odds 2.38) being 0-0 at the break.

HT/FT

The home win/win is similarly influenced by the home team’s previous (10-game) W/W form as the away side’s L/L form, with overall form a similar indicator of the outcome as the home or away form. In contrast, the away win/win shows a stronger correlation with the home team’s L/L record than with the away team’s W/W history and both overall form and home or away form give strong indicators of the outcome.

Key points and what to look for:

• For home W/Ws look for match-ups where the home team has recorded three or more W/W results in their last 10 home matches and the away teams has recorded at least three or more L/L results in their last 10 matches overall. This has occurred in 105 matches of our sample with the home team recording W/W results in 48% (odds 2.08) of the matches compared to the overall average of 25% (odds 4.0).
• For away W/Ws look for the reverse with the home team having suffered at least three L/L results in their last 10 matches (either last 10 home or last 10 home and away) and the away team having recorded at least three W/W results in their last 10 (either last 10 away or last 10 home and away). With all these combinations the home team has suffered L/L results in 33% of matches (odds 3.0) which is compared to the overall average of 19% (odds 5.3).